Good monsoon rain in sight for Maharashtra

By Times Of India on 31 May 2018 | read
PUNE: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Wednesday forecast good monsoon showers for central India, including Maharashtra, during the coming rainy season.
Though the monthly rain in July may be normal at 101% of the long period average (LPA), August might see rain at 94% (of the LPA) due to the possibility of weak El Nino conditions during the second half of the monsoon, officials said.

The IMD said rainfall over the country as a whole for the season — from June to September—is most likely to be normal at 96%-104% of the LPA. The monthly rainfall forecast for both July and August comes with a model error margin of plus or minus 9%.

The department released its second long range monsoon forecast with good news for central India and northwest India. The Met department said seasonal monsoon rainfall is likely to be 99% of the LPA over central India and 100% of the LPA over north-west India.

It said that monsoon rain may, meanwhile, be 95% of the LPA over south peninsula and 93% of LPA over northeast India— all with a model error of minus or plus 8%. Rainfall between 90% and 96% of the LPA is considered below normal, while that in the range of 96-104% of the LPA is considered normal.

A senior IMD official told TOI that the reason for the normal monsoon was mainly the absence of any adverse factors, such as El Nino, during most parts of the season. “The weather models currently indicate that two regions (south peninsula and northeast India) may receive less than normal rain. August may also have less than normal rain in comparison to the long period average due to chances of a weak El Nino ,” the official said.

The official said the intra-seasonal oscillation of the Indian monsoon may also have a role to play. This refers to the “active” periods of high rainfall and “break” periods of deficient or no rainfall during the season.

“There are some periods that see good rain during monsoon, while others witness less rainfall. The models are indicating such a break cycle during August. The extended range forecast will give a clearer picture,” he said.